Definition
A prediction market is a platform where people trade contracts that pay out based on the outcome of a future event — an election, an economic figure, an award, a sports result — with the contract price moving between 0 and 1 (or 0-100) and reflecting the market's collective estimate of the probability. A contract on an outcome that occurs settles at the full value; one on an outcome that does not settles at zero.
Some prediction markets are run as regulated exchanges, some as offshore or crypto-based platforms, and their legal classification — financial market, gambling, or something distinct — varies by jurisdiction and by event type.
Prediction markets sit near the boundary between betting and trading. Mechanically, buying a contract on an outcome is very similar to a bet on that outcome, and event-outcome contracts on sports or entertainment are treated as gambling in many places.
In context
For affiliates, prediction markets are a boundary topic worth understanding because they blur the line between gambling and financial trading and because some operate in the same grey and crypto spaces as unlicensed gambling. Content covering them should be clear about the legal ambiguity: a regulated event-contract exchange in one jurisdiction is a licensed financial or gambling venue with consumer protections, while an offshore crypto prediction platform taking bets on sports or elections is often functioning as unlicensed gambling with none.
A gambling affiliate should apply the same standard it applies elsewhere: promote only platforms that are properly licensed for the relevant activity in the user's market, do not present prediction markets as a loophole to bet on events where sports betting is restricted, and do not link to or explain how to use unlicensed offshore platforms. Where prediction markets are covered, the useful framing is educational — how the contract mechanic works, why the price approximates a probability, the varying legal treatment, and the risks of unregulated venues — paired with age-gating and responsible-gambling messaging, since buying event contracts carries the same financial risk as betting and, on unregulated platforms, without the protections.
Worked example
An affiliate's explainer describes how prediction-market contracts work and price as probabilities, notes that regulated event exchanges differ sharply from offshore crypto platforms taking sports and election bets, and does not present prediction markets as a way around sports-betting restrictions. It links only to licensed venues and carries responsible-gambling messaging.
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