Netflix has released a documentary that lands right in the middle of prediction markets' most contentious year. Instadocs: The Prediction Games premiered on 26 July, running 36 minutes, and it covers an unusually wide range of controversy connected to Kalshi and Polymarket. For an industry already fighting regulatory battles across multiple states, the timing is not ideal.
The film opens with footage from a Las Vegas mansion showing a group betting on the World Cup final. That is the same clip Kalshi previously objected to, arguing it misleadingly suggested contracts could still be purchased in Nevada this July despite an active court order. Kalshi maintains the footage was a screenshot from May 2025, before the ban took effect. The documentary uses it anyway.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour appears and repeats his familiar wisdom-of-crowds argument, along with the claim that a large share of users move from sports markets into economic, political, and cultural ones. That framing gets undercut almost immediately by a segment on professional traders, where a featured quote states plainly that most participants only profit because smarter traders have not yet entered the market.
One of the harder segments for the platforms to manage features a 19-year-old describing himself as a gambling addict, using prediction markets with money he does not have, missing rent payments, and borrowing to keep playing. That storyline sits directly against the platforms' consistent claim that prediction markets are not sports betting.
Dustin Gouker, of the newsletter and podcast The Event Horizon, appears as one of the few balanced voices, clarifying he supports regulation rather than opposing prediction markets outright. The film also covers active litigation, with CFTC chair Michael Selig reiterating the agency's federal preemption argument against states attempting to restrict the markets.
Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan discusses the platform's origin story, citing the 2024 US election as a key growth moment. The film then turns critical, referencing historical concerns about prediction markets influencing real outcomes, and raising the ethical question of markets tied to death and war.
Kalshi's enforcement team, led by Robert DeNault, is shown monitoring markets from early morning. That segment is immediately followed by a case where Spotify streaming chart markets were manipulated, directly undercutting the enforcement narrative. The film closes with the case of Emanuel Fabian, a journalist at The Times of Israel who received threats after reporting on a missile strike, allegedly from people trying to protect prediction market positions.
For anyone working in prediction markets, compliance, or adjacent betting technology, this documentary is worth watching directly. Its content is likely to surface repeatedly in litigation, regulatory hearings, and policy discussions in the months ahead.
